ANDRES JARA Market analysis · South Florida condos

658,833 closed sales · 2022–2026

Why are Miami condo prices falling?

Every headline says Miami condo prices hit another record. Owners keep telling me their unit is worth less than it was two years ago. Both are true, and the reason is buried in which condos are still selling.

Short answer: Miami-Dade’s condo average rose to $509 per square foot in 2026. But among condos selling under $500,000, price per square foot peaked at $340 in 2024 and has since fallen to $327. The county average climbs because the affordable half of the market stopped transacting — not because every condo gained value.

I track every closed condo sale in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach — 658,833 of them since 2019. When an owner tells me the market feels worse than the news says, the data usually agrees with the owner.

The averages say prices are rising

Start with the figure that makes the headlines. Every closed Miami-Dade condo sale, comparing the same 1 January to 11 November window in each year so no partial year distorts the trend:

YearSalesAvg priceAvg $/sqftDays to contract
202229,493$780,266$44858
202321,872$797,720$46063
202420,561$887,944$48567
202518,695$961,660$49784
202619,486$1,034,873$50991

Miami-Dade County condo closings, 1 January to 11 November of each year. Average price up 33%, average price per square foot up 14%.

On those numbers nothing is falling. The average sale crossed a million dollars this year. If you stopped reading there you would conclude the Miami condo market is at an all-time high.

Two columns complicate that. Sales fell by a third between 2022 and 2025 — and the typical condo now takes 91 days to go under contract, against 58 in 2022.

The averages are measuring a different market than they used to

An average sale price tells you what sold, not what things are worth. When the cheaper half of a market stops transacting, the average rises even if no individual property gained a dollar.

That is exactly what happened:

YearSales under $500KSales over $1MShare over $1M
202216,1904,48015.2%
202310,7803,42515.7%
20248,8363,65817.8%
20257,6953,61919.4%
20267,9534,16621.4%

Miami-Dade condo closings by price band, same window each year.

−51%
Fall in Miami-Dade condo sales under $500,000 since 2022
−7%
Fall in sales over $1,000,000 over the same period
21.4%
Share of all sales now above $1M, up from 15.2%

Million-dollar sales are down 7%. Everything below $500,000 is down 51%. The county’s “average condo” did not get more valuable — it got more expensive because the cheaper ones stopped closing.

Where prices genuinely fell

Separate the two halves and the picture inverts. This is price per square foot, so it cannot be distorted by larger units selling:

Year$/sqft under $500K$/sqft over $1M
2022$314$931
2023$333$905
2024$340  ← peak$937
2025$334$972
2026$327$991

Miami-Dade condo closings, price per square foot within each band.

The entry-level market peaked in 2024 at $340 per square foot and has fallen since, to $327. The luxury market did the opposite, climbing from $931 to $991. Two markets pointed in opposite directions, averaged into one number that describes neither.

So when the owner of a $400,000 condo searches “why are Miami condo prices falling” and every article tells them prices are at record highs — the owner is right, and the article is measuring something else.

2026’s twist: more sales, taking longer

Here is the part most coverage has missed. Volume bottomed in 2025 and is rising again:

+4%
Miami-Dade condo sales, 2026 vs 2025 — the first annual increase since 2021
+15%
Sales above $1M, 2026 vs 2025
58 → 91
Days from listing to contract, 2022 to 2026 — still climbing

More condos are selling than last year. They are simply taking longer and, at the lower end, fetching less per square foot. That is what a market clearing looks like: transactions resume once sellers concede on time and price, not once buyers return at the old numbers.

Broward tells the same story more sharply. Time to contract there went from 38 days to 85 — an increase of 124% — while average price per square foot drifted from $308 to $334 and volume ticked up in 2026 after four years of decline.

Aventura is the clearest single example

Aventura is worth isolating because it is almost entirely condos, so no single-family market dilutes the signal:

YearSalesAvg $/sqftDays to contract
20221,465$37372
2023981$38185
2024794$397  ← peak98
2025621$378121
2026741$370132

Aventura condo closings, 1 January to 11 November of each year.

Aventura condos peaked at $397 per square foot in 2024. Today they close at $370 — below where they were in 2022. Sales volume has recovered 19% from its 2025 low, but the average unit now takes 132 days to find a buyer, against 72 four years ago.

In Aventura, the answer to the question in the title is simply: yes, they are — about 7% below the peak, with the time to sell up 83%.

One honest caveat. These are averages across thousands of buildings, and averages conceal exactly the thing a seller needs. Two Aventura towers on the same street can sit on opposite sides of every number above. A city figure is useful for understanding the weather; it is not useful for pricing a unit.

What this means if you own one

Three things follow from the data, and only the third is about price.

1. Your segment matters more than your city

If your unit sits under $500,000, you are in the half of the market where values peaked in 2024 and volume halved. If it sits above a million, you are in the half still appreciating. The same city average is quoted to both of you.

2. Time is the real cost

At 91 days to contract in Miami-Dade and 132 in Aventura, a mispriced listing does not simply sell for less — it sells months later, after reductions that every watching buyer can see. Days on market compounds in a way a single price cut does not.

3. The building is the unit of measurement

Every number on this page is a county or city aggregate, and I would not price a single unit off any of them. What I use instead is the building’s own closed sales — how its units actually perform, what they achieve against asking, and how long they take. In a market where two price bands move in opposite directions, the building-level answer and the city-level answer frequently disagree.

What is your condo actually worth today?

I will run your unit against its own building’s closed sales rather than a city average, and tell you plainly what it supports and what it does not. Free, private, and no call unless you ask for one.

Get a building-level valuation

Questions owners ask

Are Miami condo prices actually falling in 2026?

It depends on the segment. Across all Miami-Dade condo sales the average rose to $509 per square foot in 2026. But among condos selling under $500,000, price per square foot peaked at $340 in 2024 and has since fallen to $327. The county average rises because fewer affordable units are selling, not because every condo gained value.

Why do Miami condo averages rise when my building is worth less?

Because the mix of what sells changed. Comparing the same January-to-November window each year, Miami-Dade sales under $500,000 fell from 16,190 in 2022 to 7,953 in 2026, a 51% drop, while sales over $1 million fell only 7%. Million-dollar sales grew from 15.2% of the market to 21.4%, pulling the average up even where individual values fell.

How long does it take to sell a Miami condo in 2026?

Miami-Dade condos closing in 2026 averaged 91 days from listing to signed contract, up from 58 days in 2022. In Broward County the same figure moved from 38 days to 85, an increase of 124%. Time to contract has changed far more than price has.

Are Aventura condo prices falling?

Yes, from their peak. Aventura closed sales averaged $397 per square foot in 2024 and $370 in 2026, slightly below the 2022 figure of $373. Average time to contract rose from 72 days to 132 over the same period, although sales volume rose 19% in 2026 after bottoming in 2025.

Is the Miami condo market recovering in 2026?

Volume is. Comparing the same January-to-November window, Miami-Dade condo sales rose from 18,695 in 2025 to 19,486 in 2026, the first increase since 2021, and Aventura rose 19%. But average days to contract still increased, so the recovery is in the number of sales rather than in how easily they happen.

Is now a bad time to sell a Miami condo?

Not necessarily, but it is a bad time to price from a county average. Buildings in the same city are moving in opposite directions, so the figure that matters is your own building’s closed sales and how long its units take to go under contract, not a market-wide headline.

Related: what Aventura condos are worth today, when to list an Aventura condo, and how I price and sell South Florida condos.

Method and sources. Every figure on this page comes from my own closed-sale database, which holds 658,833 closed South Florida transactions recorded between 13 June 2019 and 11 November 2026. To keep years comparable, every table counts only closings between 1 January and 11 November of its year, so the partial 2026 year is matched against the same window in earlier years. Price-per-square-foot figures exclude records outside $50–$5,000 per square foot to remove data-entry errors. “Days to contract” is the mean number of days between list date and contract date. Averages are means, not medians, and are shown as such throughout. Analysis run 13 November 2026.